The Real Spring Prognostication

Hello Followers.  Hope you’re having a great week. Well, today marks another Filibuster Thursday, the day that we gather all relevant and non-relevant items from the World of Sports, grind ‘em up into a meaty paste, and cram it all into a giant cyber tube-steak that just might be good enough to eat!

Last week, I told you that this week’s episode would include a quick look at Cougar Hoops. But, in view of the hot action that took part at America’s favorite Cougar Blog a few days ago, I thought I’d take the discussion in a different direction.  Specifically, I am going to tell all of you, once and for all, the ONLY statistic you need to worry about for the 2012 Cougar Football Season.

Feel intrigued?  Well, then click on after the  jjjjjjjjuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhmmmmp…

 

++++ Followers, I don’t know about you all, but I’m just not a very good numbers guy.  You see, at the compound, I am constantly bombarded by all of these so-called “novel” statistical methods that the Khan uses as a part of his purported day job as a university professor.  And so, given that the Khan thinks, talks, and writes about numbers all the day—and even worse, claims to understand their meaning—neither of us care to use them much with sports.   They’re just too slippery (when wet).

 

But occasionally, I buck that trend on this blog, especially when I can present figures that I can count using my fingers, toes, and occasionally, my nose. And last year provided a good example of that exception.  Specifically, sometime in August last year, I gave you the key to winning games in 2011.  And that key was?  

SCORING 30 OR MORE POINTS A GAME!!!! 

You see, l, like other Zen Masters of the Universe, knew that last year’s defense was going to struggle.  And boy did it ever!  Of course, part of the defense’s on-going struggles could be traced to special teams play, as special teams errors cost us between 10 and 14 points a game in our last three games last year. Of course, this is not to say that the defense didn’t have any strengths. After all, the 2011 Cougars were pretty decent against the run, finishing around the middle in the conference in rushing defense.  What’s more, the defensive philosophy brought forth by the worst Defensive Coordinator of all time, Chris Ball, was of the bend, bend, bend, bend, bend, then BREAK variety; which, among other “benefits” actually helped to keep the score down from time to time.

Now, what does this have to do with this year?

Well, while it’s a bit too early to tell how improved our defense might be, it doesn’t seem too far-fetched to think we’re going to struggle. While our pass defense figures to be much improved, serious questions remain, at least in my mind, regarding our ability to stop the run this year—especially since we don’t practice against a good ground game very often (And did I mention that we still don’t really have a Nose Guard?). What’s more, the aggressive blitzing style of Breske’s defense, while potentially effective AND exciting, figures to give up the Big Play from time to time. 

On top of that, when you also figure that Leach will go for—and probably miss—a few 4th down and 5’s from our 36 yard line every other game or so, well, the potential is there for our high-risk/high-reward offensive philosophy to erase any special teams improvements we might witness in the punting game. (But praise the lord that our return game figures to be better, if not legit!) +++++ Ultimately, when you put all of this “bippity-bobbity-boo” together, here’s what you’ve got:

 

WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO SCORE AT LEAST 30 POINTS A GAME IN ORDER TO WIN IN 2012  

And truly, if you want to talk about wins and losses, that is the only question and stat you all need to worry about. 

And so, as we look forward toward the rest of spring and the spring game, you can see for yourselves whether or not you think we can exceed that magic plateau on a regular basis.

Oh yeah: Our record last year when scoring 30 points or more a game?  

4-0.

Our record last year when scoring less than 30 points a game? 

0-8.

All for now.  Go Cougs.

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