| 03 September 2009
Hellllloooooo Coug Fans. Yep, another year, ready for take-off. And another Football Friday (only on Thursday). We did our best last year to keep up the collective Crimson Chins of all of you as the season wore on, death march-style. No, it wasn't easy, for any of us. But hey, we survived. It's a new day, and everyone's unbeaten (at least until later tonight)! We're all still alive! So let's get going on week I of XII, Football Friday on Thursday, where you'll get the thoughts on this week's game from the WSU Football Blog roster.
The Harbaugh's come to town, and it's what we've been waiting for all year long. Finally, the chance of chances to wash that horrific taste out of the collective mouths of Cougar Nation. So many bitter pills swallowed last fall, week after week, and now, finally, a chance to turn it all around. But all that big-picture philosophical stuff, that's for another day. Today, we look at Stanford Cardinal....
To me, there's three key things for this week's game, and here they are: (but first, a side-note. You'll likely find these so-called "keys to the game" pretty much EVERYWHERE else on these here world wide webs. We aren't reinventing the wheel. Most of this is pretty obvious what WSU has to do to try and win this game??)
1) DOG PILE ON GERHART
Any chance in this thing begins and ends with super-stud #7, maybe when it's all said and done one of the best #7's to ever don the Cardinal jersey (yes, John Elway included). 
While Stanford has a strong offensive line, and it's probable that a lot of backs could have had success in their run-first/pass-later offense last season, there may not be a better combination of power and speed in the entire country than the guy WSU will see on Saturday. His numbers were impressive last year - 1136 rushing yards, 5.4 yards per carry, and 15 TD's - and we all remember that he hardly broke a sweat on his way to rushing for four first-half TD's against a less-than-enthused Cougar defense in last year's 58-0 crushing in Palo Alto. How bad was it?
Anyway, Gerhart is much, much more than stuffing the stat sheet. He's not just a bull in a china shop either, but he's got incredibly deceptive wheels to boot. The tape don't lie:
See the moves and great feet, but also the wheels? Check out the run just 30 seconds into the tape. He gets out of trouble at the line of scrimmage, gets to the sideline and then he runs right up the rail and past the defensive secondary who thought they had the angle on him. And that's Oregon State's defense, one of the better squads in the conference on a yearly basis and always full of good, athletic, speedy defenders. So the defense not only has to dog pile on Gerhart, they better be ready to tackle as well to prevent the huge play!
And last year for the most part, so goes Gerhart, so goes Stanford. In their five wins, Gerhart averaged 111.4 rushing yards per game, while scoring eight TD's in those W's. And one of those wins, vs. UW, he left the game after only two carries for 14 yards due to an injury. Had he played even at a mediocre level for him vs. UW's poor rushing D, the average could have been considerably higher. In losses? Try 82.7 rushing yards per game, nearly 30 yards less than in their five wins.
So DOG PILE ON GERHART. Send the kitchen sink, the toilet, fridge, the whole house. Whatever it takes, but BRING IT.
2) WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
Now this actually has a lot to do with the offense more than anything else. For last year no team was more generous in playing hot potato with the pigskin than our beloved Cougs, leading the country in giveaways and ending up at MINUS-25 in turnover ratio. It was a miserable season in turnovers, one that must be flushed down the toilet as soon as possible and run far, far away from it, never to be spoken of again. A great way to start is oh, I don't know, DON'T GIVE THE DAMN THING AWAY!? Now, while it sounds simple enough, this is actually kind of tricky. You don't want the offense to be overly cautious. You still want them to go out and make plays, right? And your offense is designed (in theory anyway) to attack and spread people out, going quickly with the no-huddle. So you want the players to be fast and loose and confident, not petrified of throwing an ill-advised INT, dropping the hand-off or a punt, or fumbling away the ball after making a catch. It's Phil Steele's biggest feature every year, Turnovers = Turnaround, and he lays it all out there that historically, the teams that improve the most from year to year coincide with what happens in turnover ratio. Clean up the turnovers, and things will change in a hurry.
3) DON'T GET BURIED EARLY!
Last, but not least, and maybe one of the most important things of all in the ever-important intangible department - DON'T GET DOWN EARLY. One can only imagine the murmurs that will roll through Martin Stadium if Stanford gets a quick 14/17/21 point early lead under a hailstorm of turnovers, missed assignments, big plays, etc, etc, etc. The "here we go again" attitude will be unavoidable, and a blowout loss at home is not something this team or heck, even the football program, can afford right now. If there is one way to kill any feel-good emotions after what has been regarded as a very productive off-season for coach Wulff, it's to fall behind early in front of the home folks as well as a regional TV audience.
They need to give us all something to believe in, that better days are ahead. Not that a season is decided in one single game, especially the opener (think how Oregon State felt after the start of '08, then look at how they finished). But perhaps more than any team in the PAC-10, let alone the country, nobody needs a good start to '09 more than the Cougs.
Do these things, and we have one hell of an interesting ball game. Will they do these things? Yes....and no.
They will slow down Gerhart, at least I believe they will early in the game. And they will get the frosh QB Andrew Luck into some predictable passing situations on second or third and long. And offensively, they WILL have some success in terms of not making gigantic mistakes with turnovers. But I foresee a game very similar to Okie State last year, although not because of the offense. I think the defense just doesn't have enough gas in the tank to stop Stanford's run game for four quarters. And while the offense will do their best to show that they are improved from a year ago, and they will in fact play better than we ever saw them last year with an improved running game and a more efficient effort from both Kevin Lopina and Marshall Lobbestael at QB, it still won't be enough to overcome the kind of damage Gerhart will inflict on the Cougar D.
It will be a grinder of a game, but Stanford has enough in one they absolutely must win for an '09 bowl bid. Cardinal get it done, 29-16.
Other games:
Oregon 38, Boise St 24 - revenge from last year's Boise State shocker in Eugene, the Broncos' "Rose Bowl" last season. I don't care where they play this one, but Smurf Turf or not, the Ducks are bigger/stronger/faster. Boise State hasn't seen Oregon with Jeremiah Masoli at the controls full-time, but they will see it big-time tonight.
Cal 45, Maryland 20 - Cal is pretty good at doing the whole "we're pissed we lost to you on the road last year, now we'll beat you at our house". See Tennessee at Cal, 2007. Berkeley Bears steamroll in this one while making it loud and clear that they are THE contender to USC's PAC-10 throne for '09.
Arizona 23, Central Mich 6 - AZ's new offense sputters early, but Nic Grigsby at running back saves the day. The D brings their hard hats too, one of the best Arizona defense in years.
ASU 38, Idaho St 3 - Snoozeville in this one. ASU gets up big early then sleepwalks through the second half, as many teams playing weaker opponents are prone to do.
OSU 58, Portland State 7 - If '08 WSU can beat PSU 48-7? 48-7 might be the HALFTIME score in this one!
UCLA 26, SD State 10 - New Prince in town as UCLA's Kevin conquers the Aztecs. UCLA's D shows it will be a force to be reckoned with this year.....as long as they feel like showing up.
USC 44, San Jose ST 13 - Might be a little tight early on as Matt Barkley settles in, but USC just has far too much to even keep this one in shouting distance. It will be over by the 3rd quarter, everyone drive home safely.
LSU 40, UW 17 - Another one that could be like 10-7 early. But UW, they aren't nearly in LSU's class right now. LSU will come at them in waves with that SEC size, speed and layers of depth that will wear UW out. The exhausted, beaten Dawgs will lay down late and LSU pours it on in the end to make it a laugher at Montlake. GEAUX TIGERS!
And oh yeah....GO COUGS!
SUTRA SEZ:
Those of you who have followed this blog, know that my previous incarnate had a two and half season winning streak in picking the Cougs' fortunes. Unfortunately, that streak ended when I incorrectly picked the Cougs to beat Hawaii in the season's last game. So, I am now riding a LOSING STREAK heading into this opener with the Trees.
That all said, every body and their brother knows what we're going to do in this game, right? Stack the box with 13-15 guys, blitz, and see if we can keep Luck from getting any rhythm and see if we can stop the big G in the backfield.
Are we "much better than last year" or are we "much better, relative to last year." IF its the former, then we win this one in a 34-31 OT shocker a la Stanford and Oregon State last year.
But, if its the former, then I think that our main goal in this game is to keep them UNDER 40 and for us to score more than 21 points.
In the end, we're halfway there: Trees 38 Cougs 17
Oregon at Boise St (Thursday night). quack, quack, quack, quack, quack, SMACK! This is one of those "its gonna be a blowout" type games. If it wasn't for BSU's upset of Oregon last year, this one would be a no brainer. But, even though I think Oregon has the revenge factor going for it, the BSU doesn't lose on the Smurf Turf when they're good. And they are. BSU 38 Oregon 28
Enjoy the Games!!!!!
Hooty's Take:
What I'll be watching:
Longball's Take:
I expect to see competative football. I expect to see us have exciting moments on both sides of the ball, and I expect for some leaders and playmakers to start to emerge. I expect us to have some hope at halftime that this thing isn't out of reach. I expect to have fun again on Cougar football Saturday!
BONUS PICK:
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
